HIGHLANDS OEM UPDATE: SUNDAY - MONDAY (Posted 3.7.24)
hazardous weather expected in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
- Minor tidal flooding is likely (60 - 80%) with the high tide cycles this weekend on the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River. The high tides of greatest concern are the two high tides on Saturday, though minor flooding may start as early as the Friday morning high tide, and could linger with the Sunday morning high tide.
- Widespread rain is expected Saturday and Saturday night. Rain amounts are forecast to be 0.5 to 1.5 inches (the attached image has the forecast rain amounts). Normally this wouldn't be enough to result in any flood concerns, but with already wet ground, there is a small risk (30%) for minor flooding on rivers and smaller water ways.
- Very windy conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday. There is a 50% chance that wind gusts will exceed 45 mph which could lead to tree damage. Given the wet ground, tree damage could be more significant than what we typically see at these wind speeds.
HIGHLANDS OEM UPDATE 3.5.24 (PM)
What's changed: A Flood Watch has now been issued for portions of New Jersey, mainly across the central and northeastern sections of the state, beginning Wednesday afternoon and into early Thursday morning. See the graphic attached for the counties affected.
Hazardous Weather: Periods of rain, could be heavy at times. This will increase the risk for flooding as ground will have little chance to dry out in between systems. Attached is a forecast map for additional rainfall Wednesday-Thursday Night and the total rainfall expected from Wednesday-Sunday Night.
Locations affected: All of the region is likely to see rain. At this point, the greatest flooding risk on Wednesday will be across northeastern and central New Jersey where the Flood Watch is in effect. Where the greatest flooding risk will be for the round of rainfall Saturday and Sunday is uncertain at this time.
Timing: The first round has already occurred and will taper off tonight. The second round is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night, though some light rain may linger during the day on Thursday. The third round of rain is expected Saturday into Sunday.
Impacts: Minor flooding is possible Wednesday, primarily across central and northeastern New Jersey. A greater concern for flooding will come with the third round of rainfall this weekend as soils will be saturated across the region by then. In addition to roadway flooding in poor drainage areas, some rivers and other waterways may experience minor to moderate flooding this weekend.
Confidence of occurrence: High (90 -100%) confidence in the region seeing widespread rain with these three separate periods. The confidence in flooding occurring is lower, but has increased slightly (around 60%), especially in areas where a Flood Watch are in effect.
HIGHLANDS OEM UPDATE: 3.5.24 (AM)
Three rounds of widespread rain are expected this week, leading to an increasing flood risk.
Hazardous Weather: Periods of rain, could be heavy at times. This will increase the risk of flooding as the ground will have little chance to dry out in between systems. Attached is a forecast map for rain amounts through Saturday.
Locations affected: All of the region is likely to see rain. At this point, the highest rain amounts are expected to be over the Coastal Plains.
Timing: The first round is occurring now and will continue through late today. The second round is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night, though some light rain may linger during the day on Thursday. The third round of rain is expected Saturday into Sunday.
Impacts: Minor flooding is possible Wednesday, primarily in coastal areas, though the extent of the flood threat with the second round is uncertain at this time. The biggest concern with flooding at this point is with the third round this weekend as soils will be saturated across the region by then. In addition to roadway flooding in poor drainage areas, some rivers and other waterways may experience minor to moderate flooding this weekend.
Confidence of occurrence: High (90 -100%) confidence in the region seeing widespread rain with these three separate periods. The confidence in flooding occurring is lower (around 50%), but the details including any specific waterways at risk of seeing flooding are still uncertain.
