CURRENT BRIEFING
Briefing 4: 9.23.23 at 9:30 am
Event Summary
✔ Moderate coastal flooding along most of the DE and NJ coasts with the highest water
levels during the afternoon/evening high tide today. Some local spots in southern DE
and far southern NJ could near major flooding.
✔ Damaging winds mainly along the coast could result in some downed trees and
power lines and therefore scattered power outages. For marine interests, dangerous
winds and seas for all vessels.
✔ Heavy rain at times through the weekend could lead to localized urban or small-stream flooding. A period of heavier rain this morning, then another round possible
later this evening and Sunday. On Sunday, the heaviest rain may shift to near and
north/west of I-95.
✔ Life-threatening rip currents and high surf along all area beaches through the
weekend. Areas of significant beach erosion is likely.
CoastalStorm-TSOphelia_Sept22-24_Briefing4
PAST BRIEFINGS
Coastal Storm: Weekend of 9.22.23
Briefing 3 posted @ 10:00 am
National Hurricane Center has designated this coastal low as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16. Regardless of whether it is named or classified as "tropical" as it tracks northward, our impacts will remain the same...
Here's what will matter to you this weekend:
1 - A coastal storm will impact our region this weekend, starting tonight and lasting through Sunday. The most significant impacts will be to areas along the immediate coast on Saturday, in the form of coastal flooding and strong winds, along with periods of heavy rain.
2 - MAJOR coastal flooding is possible along coastal areas of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware. Moderate coastal flooding is possible along southern coastal areas of New Jersey; some major coastal flooding cannot be ruled out in spots for Cape May and Atlantic counties in New Jersey. The greatest concern for coastal flooding will likely occur during the Saturday afternoon high tide, around 2-3 p.m., but could linger into the following high tide cycles on Sunday.
3 - Strong onshore winds are forecast on Saturday. Gusts of 50-60 mph are possible across the immediate coastal areas and over the ocean waters; peaking up to 30-40 mph inland. Combined with coastal flooding, this could result in at least minor beach erosion, along with dangerous rip currents. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the coast with Wind Advisories up further inland for all coastal counties of DE and NJ. For our marine zones, dangerous winds and seas have warranted a Storm Warning and Gale Warnings for all waters.
4 - Periods of heavy rain are possible starting late tonight into Saturday morning, with the heaviest periods possible Saturday morning, and again later in the day. 2 to 3 inches of rain may fall across much of the region. However, with most of this falling over an extended period, the threat of flooding should be limited to the localized urban and small-stream variety in poor drainage areas.
Coastal storm 9.22.23 weather packet - am briefing
Coastal Storm – Weekend of 9.22.23
Briefing 2 – 9.21.23 at 8:15 am
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1 - We are still expecting a coastal storm to impact our region this weekend, starting Friday Night and lasting into Sunday. The most significant impacts will be to areas along the immediate coast on Saturday, in the form of coastal flooding and strong winds, along with periods of heavy rain.
2 - While there is still uncertainty regarding exact coastal water levels on Saturday, at this point it appears that most of the New Jersey and Delaware coast will experience at least minor coastal flooding, and some areas, particularly coastal southern New Jersey and southern Delaware, may experience moderate coastal flooding. The greatest concern for coastal flooding will likely occur during the Saturday afternoon high tide, around 2-3 p.m., but could linger into the following high tide cycles on Sunday.
3 - Strong onshore winds are forecast on Saturday. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible across the immediate coastal areas and over the ocean waters; peaking up to 40 mph inland. Combined with coastal flooding, this could result in at least minor beach erosion, along with dangerous rip currents. A Gale Watch is in effect for the waters a Wind Advisory may be necessary for land areas near the coast.
4 - Periods of rain will fall from Friday night into Sunday, possibly heaviest on Saturday. Locally over 2 to 3 inches of rain may fall across portions of the region. That still depends on the track of the storm system, and that track remains uncertain. At this time heavier rain amounts are forecast for the coastal areas, with less than 2 inches forecast northwest of I-95. Aside from the coastal flooding, some occasional urban and small-stream flooding of low-lying areas could occur during periods of heavier rain.
5 - There is potential that the system acquires some tropical characteristics and becomes a named storm, but this remains highly uncertain. Regardless of if that happens, the overall impacts for our area listed above will be similar.
Coastal Storm – Weekend of 9.22.23
Briefing 1 – 9.20.23 at 6:15 p m
1 - Confidence has increased regarding the potential for significant impacts from a coastal storm this weekend, starting late Friday and lasting into Sunday.
2 - Winds gusting up to 50 mph are possible across coastal areas and over the waters, with up to 40 mph inland. This will likely result in coastal flooding and at least minor beach erosion, along with dangerous rip currents. The greatest concern for coastal flooding will likely occur during the Saturday afternoon high tide, around 2-3pm. A Gale Watch is in effect for the waters and wind advisories may be necessary for land areas near the coast.
3 - Several inches of rain may fall across much of the region depending on the ultimate track of the system, though that track remains uncertain. Should a widespread heavy rainfall occur, flooding could be a significant issue. Currently the heaviest rain appears to fall over the coastal areas. Please see the attached graphic with the latest Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center.
4 - Timing and tracking of this system remains uncertain and will ultimately dictate the actual weather conditions. However, the chance that the system misses us to the east has fallen compared to 24 hours ago.
5 - There is potential that the system acquires some tropical characteristics and become a named storm, but this remains highly uncertain at this time.
